Fed, ECB action promises boost US stocks

Reported by AAP
Saturday, September 8, 2012
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US stocks have held onto the week's gains despite a glum jobs report, with the Dow and S&P 500 clinging to their best levels in four and a half years and the Nasdaq at its highest point since November 2000.

The August jobs report - a poor 96,000 jobs created, while some 386,000 people dropped out of the job market - was yet another sign of the economy's weakness.

But it also signalled the likelihood of new Federal Reserve action to help the economy and push down long-term interest rates, clearly something the investors liked enough not to embark on a selloff.

The markets got their main push during the holiday-shortened week on Thursday, when the European Central Bank announced its plan to buy up bonds of troubled eurozone governments in a move to help lower their borrowing rates and, ultimately, hold the eurozone together.

That boosted the main indices around two per cent, and they managed to retain those gains in Friday's tentative trade.

The S&P finished the period 2.2 per cent higher at 1,437.92, putting it up 14.3 per cent for the year, and at its best level since the end of 2007.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.65 per cent to 13,306.64, also its highest since December 2007, while the Nasdaq added 2.2 per cent higher to 3,136.42, its best level since November 2000.

Financials were big gainers for the week, rising 3.5 per cent led by Bank of America, which added 10.1 per cent, and Goldman Sachs, up 10.0 per cent.

Apple put on 2.2 per cent, and Facebook rose 5.1 per cent, helped by a pledge by founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg to not sell any of his shares into the weak market for another year.

Computer and chip makers lost ground during the week due to poor outlook for the PC industry, with falls in the stocks of Dell, HP, Intel, AMD and others.

Friday's nearly flat finish suggested that investors need a breather before moving ahead, analysts said.

Some remained optimistic despite the jobs data.

"While the August payrolls report disappointed expectations, there are still a number of positives underlying the US economy," said Robert Kavcic of BMO Capital Markets.

"The S&P 500 pushing to the highest level since the start of 2008 is hardly an indication that serious domestic growth concerns are brewing," he said.

"S&P 500 earnings growth did indeed slow to a single digit pace in Q2, but cash payouts to shareholders are on the rise, up nearly 14 per cent year on year to the highest level on record - and balance sheets can support more growth if businesses so choose."

Markets will take their biggest cue from Wednesday and Thursday's meeting of the Federal Reserve's policy board, the Federal Open Market Committee.

After Chairman Ben Bernanke's strong call for more action to fight joblessness on August 31, nearly all analysts say the FOMC will make some effort to further press down long-term interest rates.

That could be either by refining its announced policy stance, or going so far as to embark on QE3, a new quantitative easing, bond-buying program, analysts said.

"We expect the Fed to extend its 'low-rates' guidance through mid-2015, and to launch a QE3 program concentrated on mortgage-backed securities worth $500-600 billion," said economists at IHS Global Insight.

"We don't think the measures on the table for next week's meeting will be very effective in boosting growth, but for the Fed it's a question of trying to do what it can."

Also coming in the week are data on the US trade balance (Tuesday), producer prices (Thursday), consumer prices (Friday) and retail sales in August (Friday).

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