By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
I joined Twitter. Not because I am curious what this celebrity has to say about her kids, or to read that another one is waiting for a connecting flight, impatiently. Twitter allows me to follow news and commentary sources such as Dow Jones' Marketwatch, Bloomberg News and the Wall Street Journal. It assists me in keeping up with what is happening across the globe, while I am observing and analysing financial markets myself.
While I am on Twitter, reading a quote here and a news flash there, I offer my own succinct insights and commentary. Those amongst you who have already discovered the virtues of a Twitter account can add my Tweets to their daily news via @filapek.
For those who have no intention to join Twitter, but would like to stay up to date, below are my Tweets from the week past:
- Market rumour/talk is about China Q1 GDP possibly at 9%. (please!) See two previous Tweets about yesterday's DBS report
- DBS argues y-o-y data are misleading. China economy bottomed in Q4; soon talk will resume to tightening, instead of loosening measures
- DBS (who triggered last night's risk on rally) says GDP growth in China slowing year-on-year, but accelerating q-o-q. Predicts 8.3% and 9.0%
- Predicts BA-ML: global correction has further to run. Investors should watch Spanish bank and property stocks to gauge its magnitude
- Reports CBA: "Our view is consistent with the IMF's. Commodity prices are likely to have peaked and should trend lower in coming months"
- JP Morgan anticipates "mild" correction for US equities (5-7%), reporting season not seen as Big Catalyst, pressures from gasoline to abate
- BTIG: Recent rally has been good for many, but if US earnings season doesn't live up to its modest billing, bad times won't be far behind
- GS makes no changes to Oz Model Portfolio, retains preference for banks over resources, NAB and ANZ most preferred
- Citi sector update: "retailers are operating close to the edge of margin collapse", only Metcash and Woolworths rated Buy
- BA-ML believes Mr Market has become too negative on iron ore price prospects, suggests AGO, RIO and FMG all good value
- Doom Is Back: IMF reportedly to sharply reduce long-term forecast of China's current-account surplus, downturn seen for commodity exporters
- Report ANZ analysts in Oz: colleagues in China believe a RRR cut could be postponed until May or June
- Commodity Traders at Morgan Stanley: long cotton, gold, silver and copper, live cattle and feeder cattle
- Too much ignorant blabla about disappointing non-farm payrolls data; payback from weather suffices, April likely to be worse (says also GS)
- Barclays does see mildly lower crude oil prices for Q2 on market fundamentals, but risks of a spike higher remain
- Barclays' commodity trades for April: overweight soybeans, copper, crude oil, corn and aluminium. Underweight gold, US natgas, heating oil
- ASX200 likely to open below 4300 on Tuesday, which will have the attention of chartists. Plus will BHP shares remain above $34?
- Dennis Gartman: retreat from US equities looked silly at first, now rather prescient - short term trend lines are broken, more losses ahead?
- The Carry Trade Du Jour - Chinese traders and international copper stocks http://alturl.com/j4jei
- Goldman's Us equities "error" - even the best are forced to turn humble at times http://alturl.com/qyfeu
You can add my regular Tweets on Twitter via @filapek
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Our archive tells no lies. FNArena warned its readers well before the price of crude oil peaked in 2008 the speculator bubble would deflate with devastating consequences for those holding oil company shares. In August we warned the most severe correction in modern history was forthcoming for natural resources. In 2007 we warned the problem with US subprime mortgages would prove much bigger than experts and media were anticipating (among other things).
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