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Ross Greenwood

Ross Greenwood Blog

Approach with caution: Economic turmoil won't end anytime soon

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Just stay cautious. The markets — currency, interest rate and share — are highly unpredictable right now. The best analogy I can think of is to watch breaking waves on a beach. The waves just keep on coming.

The ebb and flow of human emotion is part of the reason for sentiment soaring and crashing around the world. But the underlying reason remains debt. For example: just because six central banks take decisive action to cut their discount rates by half a percent to free up access to cash for European commercial banks (especially) does not solve the global debt crisis.

The cut may give some respite to banks that were starved of funds (indeed it may have actually saved some from immediate bankruptcy) but it does nothing to repay the $15 trillion US Government debt, nor the crippling debts of the various European countries.

But markets soared on the back of the central bank intervention. Our dollar jumped 3US cents. And the most important part of the question is: where did that liquidity for the European banks actually come from? You probably haven't seen that one asked too many times. And that's because too many people choose to ignore that the "liquidity" is actually debt. More debt. And it will be created mainly by the US, which will raise its sovereign debt yet again to provide support to the European banks.

And this is the disconnect in the whole global situation right now. The answer to the debt problem is to issue more debt. It's crazy. At some stage you have to get people and business back to work to create the wealth to break the cycle.

It's also the reason why investors should take advantage of any short-term lulls in what will become relentless bad news. There will be opportunities to sell assets; to travel with expensive Australian dollars or to buy goods with an inflated currency. But as sure as night follows day there will be more bad news. Another crisis. And that will keep happening until Governments around the world (and Oppositions play a big part) agree to strategies to contain and repay those debts.

Remember the real reason Standard & Poor's downgraded the US credit rating from AAA was mainly because it could see no agreement from Democrats and Republicans about the way to manage the debt crisis. And this is the point. Management of a debt crisis is not what anybody wants. What any borrower, credit rating agency or taxpayer wants to see is action. And at least that's what we got a little of from the six Central banks this week. A little action.

But, still, it will take a lot more action to turn the tide on those relentless waves hitting our shores.

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