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Ross Greenwood

Ross Greenwood Blog

Timing is everything if surging CBA wants to dabble in foreign markets

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The Commonwealth Bank's profit of $7.11 billion - up 4 percent - looks not only impressive but handsome in light of the economic headwinds that confronted households, retailers and manufacturers in the past year.

Australia's biggest bank - and second biggest company behind BHP Billiton - clearly impressed the market, with shares up immediately after the result.

And shareholders, whose prices zigzagged early in the year but which have been on a steady improvement since April from around $48 to $57 have gained an extra 4 percent dividend increase.

The Commonwealth business is robust - nothing surer. And any improvement from lower interest rates will drop straight to the bottom line in an organisation that has deliberately sought to trim costs and make its processes leaner to get through the tight times. The question of when that might happen seems less clear, however, with the Westpac Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey showing a surprising downturn.

The other thing helping the Commonwealth, and other banks, is the ongoing healthy state of its credit book - with bad and doubtful debts down around $1 billion in the past year ... which went a long way in an otherwise stagnant bottom line. Unemployment in Australia remains historically low which means that households might be enduring cost of living pains, but they are surviving because their employment remains intact.

But that flat economy has made the Commonwealth cut costs with the details of its results presentation showing around 1200 job cuts in the past year, mainly through natural attrition.

The Commonwealth - like most other companies - will still be hopeful of further efficiencies (especially from its low-ball acquisition of Bankwest) though these will even now be eking away. It will be sorely tempting for Ian Narev and the board to use the balance sheet strength and high Australian dollar to follow the ANZ's lead into foreign markets. The problem, if it ever comes to that, will be all about timing. Good timing, genius. Bad timing, pilloried.

Ask BHP Billiton boss Marius Kloppers about that.

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