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Ross Greenwood

Ross Greenwood Blog

What the Greek election result means for you

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The Greek voters stared into the abyss. And what they saw prompted enough of them to back away.

The remainder, it seems, were prepared to plunge into the unknown.

What the Greeks voted for were measures of budget discipline unprecedented in their country, or many others for that matter.

They also voted for an economic system that will, for the forseeable future, cement its unemployment in the 20s and youth unemployment in the 50s.

What they voted for — the Euro essentially — means they do not have the control over interest rates or currency to allow Greece to rapidly become more competitive.

Because of this their recovery will be much slower than it otherwise might have been.

It will be based on cheap wages and perhaps in the longer term an overflow of European manufacturing seeking cheaper conditions.

Because the Greeks voted for the Euro it cannot be based on tourists and investors flocking for cheap holidays or assets.

But the Greek vote is good for German workers. While Greece remains in the Euro, the currency will remain more deflated than if Germany were currently travelling solo.

So German employment should remain strong. Exports of Audis and BMWs should remain robust.

The lack of a complete collapse of the Eurozone, as might have occurred if the far-right parties gained control, means for Australia there is today more confidence in the world.

But as the Prime Minister today correctly observed, Europe is not out of the woods yet.

The fact that Spanish banks needed bailing out last week or that Greece has had two bailouts totalling 240 billion Euros in the past three years says plenty about the fragility.

The money has to come from somewhere. And Governments around the world cannot start to quell their debts until their economies start growing again, so solutions to growth and those massive numbers of unemployed people have to be found.

For Australia, the Greek vote is qualified good news.

We have our own challenges, though these remain nowhere near the world's worries.

Most of the Australian challenges come from our success, and the fact that costs here have blown out to such a proportion that our customers (in China and Japan) are seeking alternatives — in Africa (iron ore) and Mongolia (coal).

And because the world was worried, it invested massively in the safest possible assets (US Government bonds) with the result that money drained from any economy perceived to be volatile, including Australia, hence the dollar falling below parity.

So for the time being, the Greek voters might have saved your holiday plans or your ability to buy a cheap imported car.

But markets work in cycles. Markets work on psychology. Do not pretend this is the end of the woes. While the world has such massive amounts of debt; the crises will flow over us in waves.

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